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Lab // Unit Economics and Measurement

How to calculate customer lifetime value with churn and discounting

The short answer

Customer lifetime value is the gross profit a customer generates over their time with you, adjusted for the chance they leave each month and for the time value of money. Multiply monthly gross profit by the share still active, discount each month, and add up the results.

Key takeaways
  • Use gross profit, not revenue.
  • Apply a monthly survival rate.
  • Discount far-off months.

The steps

Start with monthly revenue per account, multiply by gross margin, then multiply by (1 - churn) raised to the month number. Divide by one plus the monthly discount rate raised to the same month number, and sum across 60 months.

Worked example

An account paying $80 a month at a 70% margin with 4% monthly churn and a 10% annual discount rate has a five-year LTV of about $1,114. Without discounting it would be about $1,279 over the same horizon, which shows why discounting matters.

What to do with it

Compare LTV with acquisition cost. A ratio near 3 to 1 is a common benchmark. A low ratio points to cutting churn or acquisition cost before spending more.

Free tool / Actuarial science

What is a customer worth month by month?

LTV and Churn Survival

Questions about Unit Economics and Measurement

Why use a five-year horizon?

Forecasts beyond five years are very uncertain, so most teams cap the horizon.

Should I use revenue instead?

No. Revenue overstates value because product and service costs are still owed.

Key terms

Written by

Kartikeya Awasthi, Co-founder, InTrendz Media

Kartikeya has 12 years of experience across Accenture, EY, Coforge and other enterprises. He holds an MBA from NMIMS Mumbai and has received CII National Gold and Silver awards for AI and Industry 4.0 work. He writes and reviews every Growth Lab article. More about the author

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